Lightning vs. Canadiens Prediction & Picks - NHL Playoffs First Round Game

The Tampa Bay Lightning hit the ice in Game 3 of the NHL Playoffs First Round against the Montreal Canadiens at Bell Centre on Friday, April 24, beginning at 7 p.m. ET on TNT. The series record is tied 1-1. The Lightning have -121 odds on the moneyline against the Canadiens (+101).

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Ahead of watching this matchup, here's our pick for which club will secure the win in Friday's NHL Playoffs First Round action.

Lightning vs. Canadiens Predictions for Friday

Our computer projection model for this matchup calls for a final result of Canadiens 4, Lightning 3.

• Moneyline Pick: Canadiens (+101)
• Total Pick: Over 6 (computer predicts 6.5 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Canadiens (+1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning have a 50-26-6 record overall, with an 11-7-18 record in games that have gone to overtime.
• Tampa Bay is 12-10-5 (29 points) in its 27 games decided by one goal.
• The nine times this season the Lightning finished a game with just one goal, they went 2-6-1 (five points).
• Tampa Bay has finished 5-11-3 in the 19 games this season when it scored two goals (registering 13 points).
• The Lightning have scored at least three goals in 54 games (44-7-3, 91 points).
• In the 27 games when Tampa Bay has capitalized on a single power-play goal, it picked up 35 points after finishing 16-8-3.
• In the 47 games this season in which it has outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 28-13-6 (62 points).
• The Lightning have been outshot by opponents in 35 games, going 21-13-1 to record 43 points.

Canadiens Splits and Trends

• The Canadiens have earned a record of 15-11-26 in overtime games as part of an overall mark of 48-24-10.
• In the 32 games Montreal has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 46 points.
• This season the Canadiens scored only one goal in five games and they've earned two points (1-4-0) in those contests.
• Montreal has earned 10 points (4-8-2 record) this season when scoring two goals .
• The Canadiens have scored more than two goals 61 times, earning 97 points from those matchups (44-8-9).
• Montreal has scored a single power-play goal in 28 games this season and has registered 42 points from those matchups.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Montreal is 17-15-2 (36 points).
• The Canadiens have been outshot by opponents 46 times this season, and earned 67 points in those games.

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Canadiens Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Friday, April 24, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: TNT
• Live Stream: Watch this match on HBO Max (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Bell Centre in Montréal, Quebec

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