Lightning vs. Jets Prediction & Picks - March 5

The Tampa Bay Lightning (38-17-4) visit the Winnipeg Jets (24-26-10) at Canada Life Centre on Thursday, March 5 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The Lightning have lost three straight games.

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Before this matchup, here's who we expect to bring home the win in Thursday's hockey action.

The Jets have a 4-3-3 record in their last 10 games. They have totaled 23 goals while allowing 30 in that period. On the power play, 29 opportunities have resulted in three goals (10.3% conversion rate).

Lightning vs. Jets Predictions for Thursday

Our computer projections model for this contest expects a final tally of Jets 4, Lightning 3.

• Moneyline Pick: Jets (+156)
• Total Pick: No Pick - Predicted Margin Negligible
• Spread Pick: Jets (+1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning have a 38-17-4 record overall, with a 9-4-13 record in matchups that have needed overtime.
• Tampa Bay is 8-8-2 (18 points) in its 18 games decided by one goal.
• The six times this season the Lightning finished a game with just one goal, they went 2-3-1 (five points).
• Tampa Bay has taken 11 points from the 13 games this season when it scored a pair of goals (4-6-3 record).
• The Lightning have scored at least three goals in 38 games (32-6-0, 64 points).
• In the 19 games when Tampa Bay has recorded a single power-play goal, it picked up 26 points after finishing 12-5-2.
• In the 33 games this season in which it has outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 19-11-3 (41 points).
• The Lightning have been outshot by opponents in 25 games, going 18-6-1 to register 37 points.

Jets Splits and Trends

• The Jets have a 4-10-14 record in overtime contests this season and a 24-26-10 overall record.
• Winnipeg has earned 26 points (9-11-8) in its 28 games that finished with a one-goal margin.
• This season the Jets recorded just one goal in 11 games and they've earned two points (0-9-2) in those contests.
• Winnipeg has six points (2-4-2) when scoring a pair of goals this season.
• The Jets have earned 50 points in their 36 games with more than two goals scored.
• This season, Winnipeg has capitalized on a single power-play goal in 21 games has a record of 10-8-3 in those matchups.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Winnipeg is 7-12-2 (16 points).
• The Jets have been outshot by opponents in 38 games, going 17-14-7 to record 41 points.

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Jets Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Thursday, March 5, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, Manitoba

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