Photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images
The Tampa Bay Lightning (37-14-4), winners of 10 straight home games, host the Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21-9) at Benchmark International Arena on Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Watch the NHL, other live sports and more on HBO Max. Use our link to sign up today.
Here's our pick for who will secure the victory in Wednesday's game.
Over the past 10 games for the Maple Leafs, their offense has put up 29 goals while their defense has conceded 34 (they have a 4-5-1 record in those games). In 17 power-play opportunities during that time, they have capitalized with five goals (29.4% conversion rate).
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Predictions for Wednesday
Our computer projection model for this encounter predicts a final score of Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 2.
- Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-225)
- Total Pick: Over 6 (computer predicts 6.2 goals on average)
- Spread Pick: Lightning (-1.5)
Catch NHL action all season long on HBO Max.
Lightning Splits and Trends
- The Lightning are 37-14-4 overall and 9-4-13 in overtime games.
- In the 17 games Tampa Bay has played that were decided by one goal, it has an 8-7-2 record (good for 18 points).
- In the five games this season the Lightning recorded only one goal, they went 2-2-1 (five points).
- Tampa Bay has scored a pair of goals in 12 games this season (4-5-3 record, 11 points).
- The Lightning have scored at least three goals 36 times, and are 31-5-0 in those games (to record 62 points).
- In the 18 games when Tampa Bay has recorded a lone power-play goal, it has a 12-4-2 record (26 points).
- When it has outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 18-9-3 (39 points).
- The Lightning's opponents have had more shots in 24 games. The Lightning finished 18-5-1 in those contests (37 points).
Maple Leafs Splits and Trends
- The Maple Leafs (27-21-9 overall) have posted a record of 8-9-17 in contests that have required OT this season.
- Toronto has earned 30 points (11-3-8) in its 22 games decided by one goal.
- This season the Maple Leafs registered just one goal in five games and they've earned two points (0-3-2) in those contests.
- When Toronto has scored two goals this season, they've earned 13 points (5-6-3 record).
- The Maple Leafs have earned 48 points in their 37 games with more than two goals scored.
- Toronto has scored a lone power-play goal in 17 games this season and has registered 16 points from those matchups.
- When outshooting its opponent this season, Toronto is 6-7-1 (13 points).
- The Maple Leafs' opponents have had more shots in 41 games. The Maple Leafs finished 19-14-8 in those matchups (46 points).
Looking for NHL tickets? Head to StubHub today and see your team live.
Team Stats Comparison
| Lightning Rank | Lightning AVG | Maple Leafs AVG | Maple Leafs Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | 3.55 | Goals Scored | 3.28 | 13th |
| 2nd | 2.51 | Goals Allowed | 3.39 | 27th |
| 16th | 28.1 | Shots | 27.2 | 21st |
| 7th | 26.3 | Shots Allowed | 31.6 | 32nd |
| 12th | 21.84% | Power Play % | 18.8% | 22nd |
| 4th | 83.91% | Penalty Kill % | 83.69% | 5th |
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Game Time and TV Channel
- When: Wednesday, February 25, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: TNT
- Live Stream: Watch this match on HBO Max (Regional restrictions may apply)
- Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida
Sign up for HBO Max to watch the Lightning square off against Maple Leafs.